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Some thrilling action in the PDC World Darts Championship culminated in the biggest shock of the tournament so far as third favourite Peter Wright was dumped out of the competition by Jamie Lewis. A 4-1 victory was an emphatic one for the outsider but with another seed out of the way, is a Michael Van Gerwen title defence even more certain?
At the time of writing, only one quarter final has been confirmed for Friday’s schedule so we’ll look at that game and, with Wright now out of the picture, it seems like a good time to take another look at the overall tournament betting.
MVG
Only one quarter final is confirmed for Friday but it’s a real cracker with Mighty Michael Van Gerwen up against his fellow countryman Raymond Van Barneveld. Barney is obviously not the same player as the one who previously claimed world titles but it’s been a positive tournament for the veteran, dropping just two sets in his three matches to date.
With a number of bookies still to declare, match odds show Van Gerwen way out in front at best odds of 2/13 with MarathonBet for the win while Van Barneveld is the outside option at 11/2 – also with MarathonBet.
MVG has dropped more sets on his way to this quarter final and was tested at times by Gerwyn Price last time out but it’s almost impossible to see past the favourite so can we find any more value in the side betting?
Van Gerwen to hit the most 180s is a little better at 2/7 while Van Barneveld is at 4/1, both prices coming from SkyBet. Correct Score betting may be a wiser option although now it’s the best of nine so these are becoming much tougher to call.
MVG to win it 5-1 will be a popular bet for this one and it carries the lowest top price at 11/4 with Paddy Power and Winner Sports but, while Barney’s impressive form may not be enough to overcome his fellow Dutchman, he should make it a little closer and we like the look of odds at 4/1 with SkyBet on a correct score of 5-2 to Van Gerwen.
Other potential side bets for this one include the nine dart finish from either player at 8/1 with SkyBet and a 170 check-out at best odds of 6/1 with Paddy Power. It could be time to take a small stake on the nine-darter but we’ll pass on the 170 as it’s rare for either man to leave this figure.
Michael Van Gerwen started this tournament as the 8/15 favourite and having reached the quarter final point, he has now shortened to a top price of 8/13 from Paddy Power, William Hill and others.
That tightening is partly due to Wright having fallen at the third round stage but the man to have benefited most from Snakebite’s absence is fellow Scot Gary Anderson who, as second favourite, can now be picked up at best odds of 5/1 with Betway and Sport Pesa.
The potential issue here is that Anderson looks to be on a collision course to meet Phil Taylor in the quarters and that will obviously take one of the top three out of the equation. Taylor has good momentum going into his third round clash with the impressive Keegan Brown and can be backed at 10/1 with Boylesports for an emotional tournament win before heading into retirement.
Another interesting price shift sees Rob Cross come in to a best of 11/1 with Boylesports and Sport Pesa while others list him as third favourite along with Taylor. Elsewhere, Keegan Brown at 500/1 with Paddy Power will drop considerably if he happens to overcome Phil Taylor while Raymond Van Barneveld is at a more sensible best price of 28/1 with Boylesports.
It’s impossible to see beyond the top four and Peter Wright’s elimination shows that Rob Cross and Phil Taylor could be vulnerable leaving the way clear for a Michael Van Gerwen – Gary Anderson final.
MVG may have dropped three sets so far but he still averages 104.96 for three darts, more than anyone else and considerably more than Anderson whose own average has dipped below 100.
We therefore stick with our prediction for a Van Gerwen tournament win and will therefore look for some value from this bet from Friday’s game. You may also look at a smaller wager on a nine dart finish at that 8/1 with SkyBet.
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