Bet on the Next French President
Table of Contents
Here in the UK, we are set to go to the polls to make a major decision on the country’s future for a third successive year but while we wait for the next General Election on June 8, there are matters of equal importance going on in France.
The battle between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will have a great bearing on the French nation and Europe as a whole in the coming years but if you have no great political interest, you could still benefit by looking at the betting markets. This election comes to its conclusion on May 7 and here is how things stand – according to the bookmakers at least.
The bookmakers are backing up the polls and despite some very interesting developments from the Le Pen camp, the result market is unmoved with Macron and his En Marche party way ahead at a best price of 1/6 with William Hill for the win. Elsewhere, Le Pen herself can be backed at best odds of 11/2 with 32Red and 888Sport.
As we all know here in the UK, political markets have witnessed some major upsets in recent years so could the far right come up on the rails and deliver another shock?
Emmanuel Macron’s candidacy is unusual in that he has no official backing from any of the main parties, all of whom were eliminated at the first voting stage. The 39 year old is a long standing politician and a former member of the Socialist Party who only formed En Marche in 2016 to contest this election.
The party has built its manifesto on green issues with renewable energy at the heart of its beliefs while Macron actually hopes that En Marche will transcend political boundaries.
Marine Le Pen is a former MEP and until recently was leader of the Front National, the far right party in France. She has, however, stepped down as leader but is still contesting the election in a move which has confused a number of voters. She claims this is a temporary decision and this may be an attempt to woo voters from the far left and other supporters of parties that have already been eliminated.
Polls and Trends
The first round of voting gave Macron a 24.01% share with Le Pen behind at 21.30%. With floating voters to come in, that deficit could be overcome but the polls are right behind En Marche. Does that mean that you could take a modest profit on Emmanuel Macron at odds of 1/6 or does his opponent have a chance at 11/2?
We know that Donald Trump was a 5/1 shot just a few days ahead of the US Presidential election while that same 5/1 price could initially be obtained on Great Britain to leave the EU.
Those results indicate that it could certainly be worth a small wager on Le Pen and the time to move may be now before we hit May and the last few days of polling. Elsewhere, in the World, political results have come back to some level of normality with the Netherlands rejecting the far right and it’s widely expected that we will get the same outcome in France on May 7.
At the very least, this could be a lot closer than the markets suggests and if you are interested in this bet but want to delay your vote, pay very close attention to the polls in the wake of Le Pen stepping down as leader of Front National. The bookies are heavily behind the favourite but we all know how political betting markets can be easily upset.