US Presidential Election Odds for 2020
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The American public is still reeling to an extent from the shock of the 2016 election and it can be hard to look ahead, three years into the future. However, anyone with more than a passing interest in political betting will already be sizing up the popular options for 2020.
Will Donald Trump be returned for a further four years, after winning against Hillary Clinton, will his term even last another four years, or will another name emerge triumphant?
Markets are already open for the next US President and there are plenty of alternative bets for anyone looking for an early punt.
Event Date: November 3, 2020
2020 September Update
2020 has been a tumultuous year and, with just a few weeks left until voting starts in the 2020 US Presidential Election, it’s worth taking some time to consider some late developments. Coronavirus continues to dominate the headlines while rioting and wildfires in parts of the country make the United States a focal point for world news.
We’ll consider the potential factors in a moment but let’s quickly check on the odds as they stand in mid-September.
The markets have been close for some considerable time but, while some bookmakers had the two candidates previously listed at the same win price, the balance has shifted a fraction. The Democrat Party’s man Joe Biden is now a clear favourite at best industry odds of 10/11 with BetFred while the Republican candidate and current President Donald Trump is available at a top price of 11/10 with GentingBet.
There are other names listed by the bookmakers but barring any unforeseen circumstances it is set to be a straight Trump vs Biden battle. With that in mind, let’s just take a look at the factors that surround the campaigning right now.
The threatened second wave of Covid-19 is potentially poised with infection rates in many countries starting to rise once again. The statistics had been flattening out but recent numbers are felt by some scientists to be an indication of that second wave.
America’s infection rates and death rates have been high for some time and hadn’t shown the same signs of slowdown that we had seen elsewhere. Current graphs in September don’t show a clear pattern with rises and falls over recent days. The overall picture is a grim one however with 6.57 million cases diagnosed in the US by mid-September. The country had also recorded 194 thousand deaths and that’s a high percentage of the global death figures.
Donald Trump’s handling of Covid-19 has been widely criticised and, if there is to be a second wave, the President’s response could be critical in terms of re-election.
Riots continue across the country although media coverage in this area may be slowing down. The death of George Floyd and the shooting of Jacob Blake are behind much of the unrest and that’s another issue that could influence voting in the weeks ahead.
Since our last update, Joe Biden has moved to confirm Kamala Harris as his running mate. Before the Democratic nomination, Harris had been attracting some interest in the Presidential markets in her own right but she’s now eyeing up the VP’s office and her appointment has largely been seen as a positive one within her own party.
Harris is only the third woman and the first African American to receive such a nomination and it’s a move that could sway undecided minority voters away from the Republicans.
Trump Fights Back?
Donald Trump has been predictably bullish about his own chances while deriding the credentials of Joe Biden and his Democrat challenge. Republican conventions are packed and noisy and fully behind their man so could there be a late Trump move to hijack the odds and take up a second term?
At the time of writing in mid-September, the polls back up the betting markets with Joe Biden holding a current lead. That lead is a narrow one, however, and there is still time for Donald Trump to make that comeback.
2020 June Update
As we moved into June 2020, a number of significant developments had been seen in the US Presidential race. For the first time, Donald Trump slipped in the rankings and has become the second favourite to win his second term in the Oval Office.
That means that Joe Biden has become the new favourite to win in 2020 and we’ll start with the new odds as they stood on June 12th.
In The Lead
Joe Biden is an odds on pick across the sportsbooks while both Unibet and 888Sport offered the best industry price of 22/25. At the same time, Donald Trump had drifted above the Even Money mark with Coral and GentingBet both quoting 6/5.
Those figures have essentially switched around since they were last assessed and there are some obvious reasons for that. We’ll look at those in a moment but firstly, should you be considering any other opponents or is this now a simple case of Trump vs Biden?
Sanders Slips Away
Bernie Sanders officially withdrew from the race to become the Democrat Party nominee on April 8th, 2020. At the same time, Sanders endorsed Joe Biden and from that point, the Biden vs Trump battle seemed to be on.
The sportsbooks agree with that theory with the prices on the chasing pack starting to drift significantly. Behind the top two, the third favourite to win the 2020 US Presidential Election is Hillary Clinton at best odds of 66/1 with SportingBet. Next up is the current Vice President Mike Pence at a top price of 80/1 with BetFred and from there, the rest are at 100/1 and above.
We agree with the assessment and expect a two-horse race but who will win out of Donald Trump and Joe Biden?
America, like the rest of the world, is experiencing a chaotic landscape right now. On the 11th of June, Coronavirus cases in the US passed two million and, in this country at least, the virus is showing no signs of slowing down.
Rising unemployment is also a key factor in the race but these issues have been established for some time. From late May through June, new concerns are hitting the Trump administration. The death of George Floyd on May 25th and the subsequent Black Lives protests have increased the levels of chaos in the country. In the meantime, it appears that the voters may finally be turning against Donald Trump.
Those are the betting markets but what do the opinion polls say? Essentially, they back up what the bookmakers are saying with many organizations putting Joe Biden at around the 50% mark. Donald Trump averages out at around 42% with some 8% of voters saying that they are undecided.
When a new favourite is installed in any market it’s always a significant event. The odds, however, remain very close and with over four months remaining until America goes to the polls, we can expect to see many more twists and turns in the 2020 US Presidential Election race.
2020 April Update
With just over six months to go until the 2020 US Presidential Election is decided, Donald Trump betting odds show that the current incumbent remains in the lead. The presidential odds market was, however, a very narrow one with Trump available at a top industry price of Even Money with Ladbrokes and Coral.
The markets may still favour the man already in charge but the 2020 election odds may continue to change due to the global Coronavirus crisis which has hit the US in a significant way. With a death toll rising and a soaring unemployment rate, all eyes are on Donald Trump to see how he reacts to the situation. Outside of the United States, the President has received criticism, not least for his stated refusal to wear a protective mask and his image outside of the country isn’t great. However, it’s the voting public inside the US that matters and only they can influence the odds of Trump winning in 2020.
Will those voters stay with their current President or, after four eventful years with Donald Trump at the helm, have the US public decided that it’s time for a change?
April, May and June are critical as the country looks to ‘flatten the curve’ once deaths have peaked. The President will always have his proportion of loyal supporters, no matter what happens moving forward but floating voters will certainly be influenced by what happens in those three months. With the Democrat candidate Joe Biden close behind at best US presidential betting odds of 11/8 with BetFred, we have a fascinating odds market in prospect.
The Current Field
The two favourites have been mentioned in the previous section but, as of April 2020, the exact runners have yet to be identified. Most political observers back up the 2020 election odds but others remain in the frame.
The third favourite, albeit at distant best odds of 33/1 with 888Sport and SportingBet is Bernie Sanders. The veteran campaigner will be 79 by the time the election runs in November but Bernie Sanders remains the closest challenger to Joe Biden as far as the Democratic Party are concerned.
Andrew Cuomo and Mike Pence are also listed at 33/1 in places but BetFred have the top price on both – at 40/1 and 50/1 respectively. As we know, Pence is the current Vice President and the man who will step in if Donald Trump withdraws from office for whatever reason. Cuomo, meanwhile, is another outsider in the race to be named as the 2020 Democratic Party candidate.
We’re very much into the ‘also rans’ in the 2020 election odds markets. Anyone looking to take a punt on Hillary Clinton can find best odds of 66/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral while the same two bookmakers have a top price of 100/1 next to the name of Republican Nikki Haley.
Ladbrokes and Coral aren’t exactly known for introducing comedy into their markets but they have published some additional names which are, at best, implausible. Working through their list, punters could opt for Michele Obama at 250/1 or Ivanka Trump at 500/1. The current, and former first ladies are not going to interest us but, while the market is having its say, is it really just down to a ‘two horse race?’
Trump v Biden?
The US presidential betting odds may point towards a straight race between Trump and Biden but much can happen in the next few weeks. As we have seen, this is a challenging political landscape and there is the potential for either, or both men, to drop out of the running.
What is interesting is the fact that the 2020 election betting odds have definitely reacted to the developing situation with Coronavirus. Let’s take Andrew Cuomo as an example here and this is a contender who was out at around 250/1 in March. Once a rank outsider for the Democratic nomination, Andrew Cuomo is available at that industry best of 40/1 to become the next US President while other operators are even shorter.
Meanwhile, Trump and Joe Biden may remain as clear favourites but their respective prices have been drifting. The current US President was heavily odds on at one stage in the race for the White House in 2020 while Joe Biden has also been shorter but the situation is clearly very fluid.
The US presidential election odds for 2020 will be determined by the issues surrounding Coronavirus and how the Donald Trump government deals with it. If the disease quickly goes away and the country gets back to normal with a rising economy, it seems more likely that the current president will be back in office next year. However, a worsening situation with more deaths and growing unemployment could finally lead to a more widespread Trump backlash. In our opinion it will be Trump v Biden but in such a volatile landscape, picking a US presidential election winner from those two won’t be such a simple call.
2018 December Update
Runners and Riders
When you consider all of the controversy that has been produced since he was elected at the end of 2016, it may surprise some to see the name of Donald Trump at the head of the markets. The trend for a second term is strong but has the current incumbent done enough to justify his best price of 11/4 with Paddy Power to win in 2017?
Interestingly, Paddy have a best price of 5/4 on Trump to be impeached within his first term so that’s perhaps at odds with the suggestion that he should be the market favourite.
Behind the leader is the current Vice President Mike Pence who is at a best of 12/1 with BetFred while Elizabeth Warren is available at that same top price of 12/1 with William Hill and Coral. Elizabeth Warren is widely tipped to take the Democrat nomination for 2020 and would therefore be the direct competitor to Trump, assuming he lasts the full four years and is ready to battle for a second term.
Warren’s competition for that nomination could come from Kamala Harris who is on offer at best odds of 20/1 with Coral while Paddy Power are quoting that same 20/1 next to the name of Bernie Sanders. Those would appear to be the main contenders and beyond that list, the names start to get a little more obscure.
The bookies have started to look beyond ‘career politicians’ and to those who might follow the indirect lead of Trump to become the most powerful person in the world. Therefore, from those outside presidential election odds options we have the founder of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg who is on offer at a top price of 25/1 with Ladbrokes and BetFred.
Former first lady Michelle Obama is also in the chasing pack at that same figure of 25/1 with BetFred. In both cases, there have been calls for those two to stand in 2020 but there have been no firm suggestions that either Zuckerberg or Obama have any inclination to do so.
The same applies for some of the more outlandish suggestions and as you might expect, the majority of these arise from Paddy Power. If you really want to take a bet on Boris Johnson then feel free – Paddy have odds of 300/1 next to the name of the current British Foreign Secretary. Or why not take a flutter on Kim Kardashian who is being listed by the same bookmaker at 275/1?
These are the more obscure bets where you really would be wasting your money. Interestingly however, there are a number of ‘celebrities’ enjoying the type of mid range price that has also been levelled at Mark Zuckerberg and Michelle Obama.
Included in this list are Actor and occasional Wrestler Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson who is at a best price of 40/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and as short at 12/1 with William Hill. Meanwhile, Presenter Oprah Winfrey is out at that same 40/1 with William Hill while Paddy Power go as short as 16/1.
Clearly the bookies are split on some of these prices but there is a consensus that the next President may well come from the world of entertainment.
Along with the range of candidates for the 2020 presidential election, you can take a number of bets that relate to the Presidency of Donald Trump. We’ve already mentioned that impeachment price of 5/4 with Paddy Power while the same bookmaker has a number of interesting alternatives.
At Paddy you can also get Even Money on Trump to resign during his first term of his own volition – in this instance there would be no impeachment involved. Trump to serve a second term is at odds of 3/1 so strangely that option gives you slightly better value than the 11/4 in the bookmaker’s 2020 winner market.
From there, things start to get a little more bizarre with bets available on what Trump will actually ban during his first term in office. These range from shorter prices such as Gay Marriage at 6/1 and then build to Women’s Voting Rights at 300/1 or Stairs (!) at 500/1.
You could also speculate on the current US President to confirm that alien lifeforms exist and Paddy Power will return odds of 20/1 if you are successful. Alternatively, Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term is on offer with the same bookie at odds of 33/1.
It’s worth looking at Paddy’s Trump Specials page and in among all the nonsense are some popular options to take a reasonable profit such as the market on who will become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Here, Kevin Warsh leads the way at odds of 7/5.
So, there are lots of popular options in terms of the 2020 Presidential Election and on US Politics in particular. These are incredible times on the world’s political stage and a number of bookmakers have given good prices for anyone looking to get involved with an ante post punt.